Newcastle Advisors - 2020 Melbourne cup tips
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Melbourne Cup
The cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
With form lines coming from all over the world, with many international horses having their first start in Australia and others tackling the 3,200m for the first time.
In saying that, here is our analysis:
#1 Anthony Van Dyck
Was terrific finishing a close second in the Caulfield Cup forced to make a long run wide out. He was the Derby winner at Epsom Downs in 2019.
Hasn't raced at the Cup trip but no reason to suggest he won't run the journey out and is a genuine winning chance.
#2 Avilius
Continues to race consistently at the top level but hasn't returned to the winner's stall since September 2019 and was down the track in the 2018 Melbourne Cup. Likely to need some rain about to have a chance of figuring in the finish.
#3 Vow And Declare
Last years Cup winner after finishing second in the Caulfield Cup and well beaten at Caulfield this year. Doesn't seen to be going as well this year but obviously is capable of improving sharply.
#4 Master of Reality
Was second across the line in the 2019 Cup but was relegated to fourth in the Steward's room. His recent form has been solid finishing second at the Curragh two back before winning in Ireland last start.
Has to be a strong chance to make amends for the disappointment of last year.
#5 Sir Dragonet
Import which was strong at the end in his Cox Plate victory and he was fourth in the Group I St Leger at Doncaster over 2922m so happy to give him a tick at the 3200m.
Looks well treated at the weights with 55.5kg and has to be a key player.
#6 Twilight Payment
Was less than four-lengths from the winner in the 2019 Cup and arguably going better this year winning successive races at The Curragh before a last start third in the St Leger at the same track. Definite chance.
#7 Verry Elleegant
Terrific mare racing in grand form, the winner of six Group I's and is chasing the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups double.
Although some rain would enhances her chances she is proven on good ground with wins in the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup last two. Running out a strong two mile looks the only query.
#8 Mustajeer
Was less than four-lengths from the winner in the Caulfield Cup and that's as good as he has gone in recent times and would have to improve considerably to be a genuine winning chance.
#9 Stratum Albion
He's an eight-year-old that's never been able to win a black type race although placed a couple of times at Group level including a last start second in a Group II at York.
He will run the trip out but whether he can run it quick enough is the question. Doubt he can.
#10 Dashing Willoughby
Finished last in the Caulfield Cup at his first Australian start after leading early. Would be a massive form turnaround if he was to win.
#11 Finche
Was close up in the 2019 Caulfield and Melbourne Cups raising expectations for 2020 and has done nothing wrong in three runs this preparation including a Caulfield Cup fifth last start when always wide.
This is no doubt his target race and will peak on the day. Right in play
#12 Prince of Arran
Has never finished worse than fourth in seven Australian starts and has been placed in the last two Melbourne Cups.
Seems right on track for the 2020 edition after a strong finishing fourth in the Caulfield Cup last start. Expected to be right in the mix again.
#13 Surprise Baby
Was beaten less than a length in the 2019 Cup when fifth and connections have had just the one race in mind since, the 2020 edition.
Finished runner-up in the Feehan resuming and was only 2-1/2 lengths away in the Turnbull. Set to peak third-up and a genuine local hope.
#14 King of Leogrance
Adelaide Cup winner earlier in the year and improved considerably at his second run back from a spell when third in the Geelong Cup.
Still scope for improvement and can run a race at big odds.
#15 Russian Camelot
Put his name up in lights with an emphatic win in the South Australian Derby as a three-year-old and nothing wrong with his form this preparation.
Had his colours lowered at Caulfield but was the best of the locals in the Cox Plate when third. Looking for the step up in trip and is right in play.
#16 Steel Prince
Was only a couple of lengths from the winner last year and returned to winning form in the Geelong Cup last start.
Suspect he has to find something to win the race but has bright place prospects.
#17 The Chosen One
Staked his two mile claims finishing a close second in the Sydney Cup earlier in the year and bounced back to form finishing third in the Caulfield Cup.
Knockout hope at big odds.
#18 Ashrun
Gained his place in the field at the last minute with a strong win in the Hotham Handicap on Saturday. He's Group I placed in Germany and has been placed up to 3000m.
No surprise to see him in the finish.
#19 Warning
Won the Victoria Derby this time last year but hasn't been able to win in nine subsequent outings. Likely to appreciate the two mile but stills needs to lift considerably to be in the finish
#20 Etah James
Won the Sydney Cup in the autumn. Improved run when fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Rough chance but prospects enhanced if any rain about.
#21Tiger Moth
He's a Northern Hemisphere three-year-old and that's been a recipe for success in the big one in recent years. He's only raced on four occasions and was narrowly beaten in the Irish Derby before an easy four-length win in Ireland last start.
First go at the trip but have to respect the trainer and it's easy to see why he is so prominent in betting markets.
#22 Oceanex
Gained her place in the field winning the Andrew Ramsden Stakes earlier in the year.
Showed a return to that sort of form when third in the Moonee Valley Cup last start but suggests she still has to find plenty to be a genuine winning chance.
#23 Miami Bound
Won the Wakeful Stakes and Oaks this time last year and bounced back to winning form in the Moonee Valley Cup last start.
The trainer knows what it takes to win the big one at Flemington and no surprise to see her in the finish.
#24 Persan
Finds himself in the big one courtesy of his Bart Cummings victory. He was strong at the end of 2500m that day and whilst that race doesn't look the form line for the Cup he still has rough place prospects.
Tips
Our selection criteria is that the horse has to be proven over the distance, has had a start & performed in Australia, & has a premier jockey on board.
Raced at this distance or further:
2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,16,17,18,20
Raced & performed in Australia:
2,3,4,5,8,11,12,13,14,16,17,18,20
Premier Jockey
5,11,12,13,16
Our Selections
#11 Finche
Proven at this distance, running 4th in the Melbourne Cup in 2018 & 7th in 2019. His 3 lead up runs have been exception, it looks like he is screaming out for this distance and ready to peak 4th up.
Gun Sydney hoop James McDonald jumps aboard & from the inside draw will give him every opportunity.
#5 Sir Dragonet
Overseas horse that had a huge turn of foot in the Cox Plate to notch up a dominate win in his first Australian start.
Big race jock Glen Boss retains the ride.
#13 Surprise Baby
5th in in 2019 Melbourne Cup.
Has only had two starts since, and is set to peak 3rd up.
Experienced Melbourne Jockey Craig Williams retains the ride.
#12 Prince of Arran
Placed in past two Melbourne Cups.
Travelled the world since Melbourne Cup last year, racing in England & Hong Kong.
Nice first up run in Australia, coming 4th in the Caulfield Cup.
Leading Melbourne hoop Jamie Kah retains the ride.
As we discussed, the Melbourne Cup is the most difficult race to analyse.
In saying that, there are a few other tips in the day that we have a bit more confidence about:
Flemington Race 1 #1 Ingratiating
The stable rate this 2 year old.
Jockey Damien Oliver rode it last start, when he jumped off, Oliver said that is the best 2 year old he has ridden in the past few years.
He recommended that the stable spell it and bring it back for the bigger 2 year old races next year.
However, James Cummings wants to win the Maribyrnong Plate, so Ingratiating is running.
Coming off a win at only start at Flemington. Bad luck looks the only danger.
Flemington Race 6 #14 Titan Blinders
Has placed in five runs from five this campaign and in the money last start running second at Moonee Valley.
Loved last start at Mooney Valley, on a leader biased track, chased hard.
The bigger Flemington track will suit him.
Each way claims.
