What you need to know about the Evergrande bankruptcy
What you need to know about the Evergrande bankruptcy
China’s real estate crisis deepens, but does this signal serious trouble for the world’s second largest economy?
A crisis has been brewing in China’s property market since a significant change in policy by Beijing in 2020. In the last week, Evergrande finally succumbed to its staggering debt, and other developers are on shaky ground. We explain what led up to this, and what it may mean for China given the property sector accounts for a quarter of that economy.
What happened?
On 18 August 2023, the China Evergrande Group filed for bankruptcy in the US. Leveraging Chapter 15, Evergrande took the action to help protect their US assets while they restructured A$468 billion in debt.
Evergrande is the second largest Chinese property developer by sales, and responsible for significant residential developments. Once the largest player, this bankruptcy claim comes after Evergrande stumbled in 2021 and started missing debt repayments.
There’s no doubt the sector is struggling. Country Garden, formerly the largest property developer in China and now sitting at 6th, has also recently defaulted. These are just two examples of the many developers that aren’t completing projects.
Further to this is the reverberation through the trust sector, China’s shadow banking system, that has substantial exposure to property developers. One trust bank, Zhogzhui, failed to meet payments on investment funds last week.
What led to this?
In 2020, the Chinese government implemented the ‘three red lines’ policy to inhibit out-of-control borrowing by property developers. Essentially, this policy restricts the amount of new borrowing by developers each year.
The policy was intended to dampen housing prices and, as Xi Jinping stated, create housing for living rather than investing.
However, real estate companies started struggling to find financing to complete developments and to keep up with debt repayments. As a reasonable proportion of residential property is sold off a plan, this created a cycle where some buyers stopped mortgage payments as work on developments stalled.
What does this mean for China’s economy?
The real estate crisis adds to the economic woes in China. Post the tough measures instigated during the covid pandemic, China’s economy has failed to bounce back. In July, the country slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined.
However, the challenges in the real estate sector and in the trust sector are not new. The issues at Evergrande and Country Garden have been well known for some time.
Does this mean the real estate crisis doesn’t pose an economic threat? The wider question will be on Chinese consumer sentiment which has taken a hit due to the issues in the property sector.
Will the government step in?
In a move to support the property sector, at the PBOC’s monthly meeting on 21 August, the 1-year lending rate was cut by 10bps. However, it came as a surprise to some economists that the 5-year rate remained unchanged.
Many experts expect further stimulus measures in the coming months.
In a sign of this, last week regulators issued a series of measures to make it easier for companies to buy back shares and cut transaction fees for investment companies in order to improve retail investor confidence.
How have markets reacted?
Markets have taken the recent events in China in their stride, and we have so far not seen increased volatility. This in part is because these were known issues, and the serious hit having already come in 2021 when the fear of contagion drove markets down.
Will the Australian economy be impacted by this crisis?
In mid August, the Australian share market had its worst week in almost a year which was somewhat attributed to concerns about the impact of China’s economy on our own. While not directly related to the property crisis, speculation about the impact on commodity prices, particularly iron ore, contributed to this.
Overall, some of the economic friction with China has eased more recently and restrictions on wine and wheat have lessened somewhat. There does appear to be a more pragmatic approach from the current government about economic issues which have been independent of the property market challenges.
Recent experience affecting a prospective client
Last week we had a client that wanted to purchase several investment properties in a regional area, that had an abattoir that supported the employment and subsequently demand for housing in the area.
The client said in the last few years a Chinese investor had purchased a majority share in the abattoir which guarantees contracts, and subsequently demand for rentals for 457 visa workers.
The client’s investment strategy, is to purchase a number of properties and rent out each room to a 457 visa holder.
My only concern was when I looked into the Chinese buyers, they are a property development family that has seen their net wealth crash from $11b down to $900m in 3 years, with their wealth still falling. As their property development company has had their share price fall from $65 per share down to $0.61 cents this week.
This raised several red flags for me, which I articulated to the client that the Chinese money and contracts may not be as great as they first thought, and there is a considerable amount of risk moving forward. With this new information the client was able to make an informed investment decision.
This illustrates how the Chinese Property market can affect you personally in your investment dealings in Australia.
Source: https://www.cfs.com.au/adviser/investments-adviser/news-updates/market-updates/about-evergrande-collapse.html